Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Rule 5 Draft Preview

Shawn Hill and Robert Ray were called up to the Jays following Las Vegas' final game of the season last night in which Brad Mills had a very good outing. Surprisingly Mills didn't get the call and may be done for the year as Jays already have a sense for Mills from his previous visit to the big team earlier in the year.

Hill is going to get the start on Friday as Jays want to see what he can do in preparation for next year and to gather more information for finalizing their 40 man roster after the season. Ray may get some innings for the same reason. Ray has dropped way down the depth chart but still has the stuff to be a major leaguer likely as a 5th starter or middle reliever like Camp or Janssen. Jays need to know whether to use a roster spot on him or expose him to the rule 5 draft in December and use the spot for another player they view with more upside. With the lack of pitching, either of Hill or Ray would likely be snapped up by a team, like Milwaukee who is in desperate need of pitching.

Perhaps AA is hoping they have some good outings in September which would generate trade interest in the off season. Alternatively they could be used to sweeten a trade deal. It would be better to get something for them then let them be drafted off our roster. Remember, teams don't have to protect players until after at least 4 minor league seasons. So if AA can get a younger player in a trade for someone like Ray, it gives him some roster flexibility as well.

Below is my guess on the 40 man roster come December. With a full roster, the Jays couldn't draft anyone in the rule 5 draft so AA likely will leave 1 spot vacant "just in case" he sees someone he likes. The players I see at risk of being left off the list are, McGowan (depending on medical and workout reports, Robert Ray, Brian Jerolman (likely to be a journeyman backup catcher in major leagues).

Players like Drabek, Stewart, David Cooper don't yet have to be put on the roster unless they make it to the big team.

1B Mike Jacobs
2B Aaron Hill
SS Yunel Escobar
3B Shawn Bowman
C JP Arencibia
C Jose Molina
C Brian Jerolman
DH Adam Lind
INF Mike McCoy
INF Brad Emaus
INF Jarrett Hoffpauir
SS Adeiny Hechevarria

LF Fred Lewis
CF Vernon Wells
LF Travis Snider
RF Jose Bautista
CF Darin Mastroianni
RF Adam Loewen
RF Moises Sierra

SP Shaun Marcum
SP Ricky Romero
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Brett Cecil
SP Shawn Hill
SP Jesse Litsch
SP Mark Rzepczynski
RP Brad Mills
RP Jesse Carlson
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Casey Janssen
RP Josh Roenicke
RP David Purcey
RP Shawn Camp
SP Luis Perez
SP Dustin McGowan
RP Jo Jo Reyes
SP Scott Richmond
SP Robert Ray
RP Ronald Uviedo
RP Alan Farina

Jays have several players who could be taken in the rule 5 draft. Obviously, this list would need to be updated after the actual 40 man rosters are set prior to the draft. By then Baseball America has a list of the best talents available in the draft. However, I list my preliminary thoughts for discussion.

Of Aaron Matthews
1B Brian Dopirak
OF Adam Calderone
SP Reider Gonzalez
RP Adrian Martin

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