Thursday, March 18, 2010

Potential Lyle Overbay Destination

More Rebuilding Discussion
Richard Griffin has a nice article today which piggybacks on mine from yesterday about the Jays rebuilding, comparing them to the same rebuilding effort by the Orioles. I don’t think there is any doubt Baltimore is ahead of us and I expect them to play .500+ ball this year but the Jays are not far behind and could potentially have a .500 record themselves.

It is just more evidence that this is the best and toughest division in all of sports. Imagine having 5 teams over .500 and only 2 of them making the playoffs. This also speaks to Bud Selig’s thoughts on realigning the divisions to create more competitive balance, take advantage of natural rivalries, and give more of the better teams in the AL a better chance of being in the playoffs.

Overbay to the Marlins?
Report from the Miami Herald today says there is an opening at 1B and Mike Lowell of the Red Sox is a possible candidate. Considering the size of his contract and his uncertain recovery from the hand injury which caused cancellation of his December trade to Texas, could Lyle Overbay be a more economical option for the Marlins? Oberbay would be a 1 year commitment the same and Lowell, has a salary several million less than Lowell, would play superior defense, and is sure to bounce back from a bad year last year. My assessment is that he’s a much better risk for the Marlins.

ESPN reports that scouts say Lowell is not moving very well this spring and so the Marlins are cooling on the idea of him at 1B for them even if the Red Sox paid most of his salary.

2010 Draft Preview
The Sporting News has a great early look at the 2010 draft and takes a shot at projecting the draft order. It’s way too early yet to be certain who might be available in a specific slot, however, it does give us all a look at some of the top players available so that we can become familiar with them.

6 comments:

  1. The Jays will finish ahead of the Orioles this season. Fuck the Orioles. Always.

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  2. Thanks for the contribution. I can do without the profanity but think you may be right about the Jays finishing 4th after seeing how they made mincemeat out of them today.

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  3. On that Sporting News draft list - all 16 of those guys are good. I'd be happy with pretty much any of them.

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  4. The problem with Overbay is there is a glut of players at that position who are either still without a team, or will be readily available at the trade deadline. I don't see AA being able to move him for a decent package, so maybe Overbay just runs out the duration of his contract and the team parts ways with him at the end of the season.

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  5. I like the Florida suggestion, but the big question is what do you get in return from them? I had gone through their lineup and minors and came up with a few decent possibilities like OF Scott Cousins or OF Marcell Ozuna. But the problem is why go get Overbay when you have Gaby Sanchez on the cheap and Logan Morisson right behind him? So, if it were to happen the Jays would have to cover a ton of the money. I see the Mariners (Kotchman) or Braves (Glaus...can you say injury?) as more likely options.

    I also love watching to see who may be picked by who in the draft. Chris Sale is a nice prospect, but I doubt the Jays would pass up on Austin Wilson to get him. Could be wrong, but I think most teams believe Wilson is a top 10 guy.
    We'll see I guess!

    Nice work!

    Mat

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  6. I'm with Hunter on this one. He stays till the deadline at the very least. Depending on his Elias rating at that time, he may be worth more as a type B or even type A free agent than what you can get for him on the trade market.

    Tricky game to play though, we would have to offer him arbitration, he would have to decline and then get signed to a major league contract in order to get the draft picks. I think everyone can agree that Lyle is overpaid. If he accepts, than you have to figure he is going to use his current salary of 7 million as a baseline for his demand and that will no doubt be more than he gets offered on the open market based on his performance and the last few years signing figures. A smart agent would tell him to accept it. More likely to happen if he is a type A than B.

    But more importantly than that by accepting he would block Wallace for another year.....

    It is possible we deal him this year. It is also possible we keep him all year, take a gamble in the off-season and lose.

    Personally, I think we move him at the deadline for a decent but not great prospect. Maybe as part of a package. Let some other team figure out what to do with him.

    After writing this, I realized I have not done a post on the arbitration process. Look for that.

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